Decentralized Event Simulation & Prediction Engine
去中心化事件模拟与预测引擎
An AI-powered event simulation platform that analyzes news events and generates multi-horizon prediction reports (2-day, 7-day, 14-day).
一个 AI 驱动的事件模拟平台，分析新闻事件并生成多时间跨度预测报告。
For validator scoring. Machine-readable, instantly comparable.
供验证者评分，机器可读，即时比对。
{
"direction": "escalate",
"milestones": [...],
"confidence": 0.72,
"coverage": ["economic", "political"]
}
For paying customers. Readable, insightful, decision-ready.
供付费客户消费，可读、有洞察、决策就绪。
Critical: Both tracks must be content-consistent. Discrepancies are auto-detected and penalized.
关键：双轨内容必须一致，不一致将被自动检测并惩罚。
Draw events from candidate pool using block-hash random seed. Broadcast to all miners.
使用区块哈希随机种子从候选池抽取事件，广播给所有矿工。
At T+2 / T+7 / T+14, collect real-world outcomes via news APIs, social trends, market data + 3-source cross-validation.
在三个时间点采集真实走向，新闻 API + 社交媒体 + 市场数据，3 源交叉验证。
Run the scoring engine, execute consistency-anchor scan, compute composite score, submit weights to Yuma Consensus.
运行评分引擎，执行一致性锚定扫描，计算综合得分，提交权重。
Direction (50%) + Milestone Hit (30%) + Causal Match (20%)
方向正确性 + 关键节点命中 + 因果链匹配
2-day 20% / 7-day 35% / 14-day 45% window weighting
三窗口加权
Economic, political, social, tech, financial dimensions covered vs. actual impact.
经济、政治、社会、技术、金融等维度覆盖 vs 实际影响。
Brier Score punishes overconfidence. Forces honest uncertainty assessment.
Brier Score 惩罚过度自信，迫使诚实评估不确定性。
Example: Brier 0.18 → Score 0.78
示例：Brier 0.18 对应得分 0.78
Consistency (40%) + Logic (25%) + Insight (20%) + Readability (15%)
内容一致性 + 逻辑清晰度 + 洞察深度 + 可读性
| Layer | Miner Obligation 矿工义务 | Validator Enforcement 验证者执行 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Commit-Reveal: Submit SHA-256 hash at T+0, reveal at T+14 T+0 上链哈希，T+14 揭示原文 |
Recompute hash, compare on-chain. Mismatch = all scores zeroed. 重新计算哈希比对，不匹配则该期所有得分清零。 |
| 2 | Cannot choose events. Receive whatever block-hash seed provides. 无法选择事件，区块哈希随机分配。 |
Publish seed derivation + sampling algorithm. Auditable by anyone. 公开种子推导和采样算法，任何人可审计。 |
| 3 | Must accept multiple validators' independent scores. 必须接受多个验证者的独立评分。 |
3+ validators score independently. Yuma Consensus trims outliers. 3+ 验证者独立评分，Yuma 修剪离群值。 |
| 4 | Must declare honest confidence. Cannot default to 99%. 必须诚实声明置信度，不能默认 99%。 |
Brier Score > 0.40 → Calibration score < 0.39. 3x consecutive → reputation decay. Brier > 0.40 严重拉低 15% 权重，连续 3 次触发声誉衰减。 |
| 5 | Structured JSON and report must tell the same story. 结构化数据和报告必须讲同一个故事。 |
NLP scan: embedding_similarity × keyword_match_rate < 90% = 0 on consistency. NLP 扫描语义匹配度 < 90% 则一致性子维度得 0 分。 |
Bootstrap 启动期
High emissions attract miners. Free tier builds accuracy benchmark.
高排放吸引矿工，免费层建立准确度基准。
Subscriptions 订阅期
Pro $50-200/mo. Enterprise API $0.01-0.05/query. Custom $500-5k.
Pro 订阅 / 企业 API / 定制报告三级变现。
Flywheel 飞轮期
Historical DB monetization. "Accuracy as a Service" for other AI.
历史数据库资产化，"准确度即服务"。
| Competitor 竞品 | Strength 优势 | Gap We Fill 我们填补的空白 |
|---|---|---|
| Think Tanks 智库 (RAND, Stratfor) | Deep expertise 深度专业 | $XX,XXX/year barrier; no validation loop 价格门槛高，无验证闭环 |
| Prediction Markets 预测市场 (Polymarket) | Crowd wisdom 众包智慧 | Binary only; no structured foresight 二元结果，无结构化前瞻 |
| AI Platforms (Mirofish original) | Simulation power 模拟能力强 | Centralized; single method; cannot evolve 中心化，单一方法，无法进化 |
| MiroSwarm | Decentralized, validated, evolving | First event-prediction subnet on Bittensor |
The first Bittensor subnet that turns event prediction accuracy into a tradable, verifiable, continuously improving commodity.
第一个将事件预测准确度商品化的 Bittensor 子网。
Thank you. Questions welcome. | 感谢聆听，欢迎提问。